Every morning, I trade the the 7am-9am Germany 30 (DAX) strategy with Nadex binary options. This strategy was based on the observation from a veteran trader who remarked that the 7am EST hourly candlestick of the Germany 30 (DAX) Index is a pivot point that determines the direction of that market for the next hour or so.
Here are the rules for the strategy:
- Select the 7am-9am EST Nadex time period for the Germany 30 (DAX) Index.
- If the 7am EST hourly candlestick is BULLISH, then BUY at the first Nadex strike price available BELOW the opening price of hourly candlestick.
- If the 7am EST hourly candlestick is BEARISH, then SELL at the first Nadex strike price available ABOVE the opening price of hourly candlestick.
This is a very simple strategy that is remarkably consistent. Just be patient and watch the 7am hourly candlestick develop. Once it's confirmed bullish, then buy. If it's confirmed bearish, then sell. If you want to be "super-safe", don't make a trading decision until 8am, after the 7am hourly candlestick has closed.
With the pending US Jobs reports due at 8:30, extreme caution trading this strategy was warranted.
Click on Nadex Chart to Enlarge |
- SELL at >10849 (1 contract): Risk $50, Reward $50
- SELL at >10869 (3 contracts) Risk $79, Reward $81
Courtesy of Investing.com. Click to Enlarge |
Now it was time to wait for the economic news reports. All of the reports came in bullish, with the exception of the unemployment report (Jan), which slipped from 5.6% to 5.7%.
The market spiked bullish at 8:30, filling both pending orders. Then it pulled back. Notice the huge wicks on the 8:30 candlestick on the 5-minute chart. At 8:35, the market spiked very bullish, blowing past the SELL order at 10849 .
At 8:45, it appeared obvious that the 10849 SELL order was not going to expire in the money, so the trade exited early for a $29.50 loss. The SELL order at 10869 was breached briefly, but then the market retraced and expired at 10855.467, settling in the money for the 10869 sell order.
The result of these two trades netted a small net profit of $28.10 after exchange fees were deducted. The 10869 sell order was essentially an insurance policy if the 10849 sell order failed.
The result of these two trades netted a small net profit of $28.10 after exchange fees were deducted. The 10869 sell order was essentially an insurance policy if the 10849 sell order failed.
In hindsight, I have a few thoughts about trading into the monthly US Jobs reports:
- For maximum safety, don't trade into this the monthly US Jobs reports, or any other high impact economic news reports.
- If you do trade, wait for the reports to be released. In today's example, placing a BUY order at 10829 after 8:30 would have been much safer.
- If you follow the rules of this strategy, jump one level up the price ladder if you are trading into the news, instead of selling from the first strike price above the 7am open.
If you strictly followed the rules of the 7am-9am Germany 30 (DAX) strategy, and SOLD the market at the first strike price ABOVE the 7am opening price, then your trade would have been a loser. Be very careful trading into the news.
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The opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the author, and should not be construed as trading advice. I am not a registered or certified financial planner. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. All individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.