The Inquisitive Trader: DAX

Showing posts with label DAX. Show all posts

Thursday, August 13, 2015

A Low Risk, High-Reward Twist on the DAX "Strudel" Strategy with Nadex

Every morning, I trade the the 7am-9am Germany 30 (DAX) strategy with Nadex binary options. I call it the "Strudel" strategy, because it's a delicious breakfast trade. This strategy was based on the observation from Tom Busby, a veteran Futures trader who observed that the 7am EDT hourly candlestick of the Germany 30 (DAX) Index is a pivot point that determines the direction of that market for the following hour a great majority of the time.

The rules for the strategy are remarkably simple:

Select the 7am-9am EST Nadex time period for the Germany 30 (DAX) Index.
Once you are 100% convinced that the 7am EDT hourly candlestick will be BULLISH, then BUY at the first Nadex strike price available BELOW the opening price of hourly candlestick.
Once you are 100% convinced that the 7am EDT hourly candlestick will BEARISH, then SELL at the first Nadex strike price available ABOVE the opening price of hourly candlestick.
The safest way to execute this strategy is to wait for the 7am hourly candlestick to completely close before you make a decision to BUY or SELL. Markets can get whippy, and one of the most common mistakes made with this strategy is to pull the trigger too early on the trade. Patience is key.

This strategy has been remarkably consistent. Over the past 60+ trading days, this pattern has repeated itself about 90 percent of the time. Just be patient and watch the 7am hourly candlestick develop. Once it's confirmed bullish, then buy. If it's confirmed bearish, then sell. Again, if you want to be "super-safe", don't make a trading decision until 8am, after the 7am hourly candlestick has closed.
Sometimes the 7am hourly candlestick develops very bullish or bearish in a hurry. When that happens, it may be very difficult to get a trade that satisfies your risk/reward criteria. Today was an example of such a trade.

5 Minute Nadex Chart on the Germany 30 (DAX) Index. Click on Chart to Enlarge.

Looking at the chart above, the market had been on an extended downtrend, opening at 11422 at 7:00am EDT. The market ground it's way upward for the first 15 minutes. Then it reversed and started to dive. The 7am hourly candlestick closed at 11405 - BEARISH.

Under the trading rules of this strategy, that would trigger a SELL from 11429, the first Nadex strike price ABOVE the 7am hourly candlestick. But at 8:00am the market was 25 ticks away from the strike price and continuing to move South. To get an order filled, it would have required me to risk $85-$90 per contract. A little bit too expensive for me. The MACD was starting to cross over from bullish to bearish, and I felt the downtrend would continue, so I placed two orders:

The first order was a working order that satisfied the rules of the trade. I sold from the first strike price ABOVE the 7am hourly closed candle, which was 11429. The market looked like it was going to be on a continuation down trend, so I placed another live order to SELL at 11369. For this order to settle in-the-money (ITM) for full profit, the market would need to drop another 36 ticks.

The beauty of out-of-the-money (OTM) trades is that your capital risked is far less than your potential reward. But OTM trades also become valuable when the market starts to move toward your strike price. I had a $30 profit target per contract with my pending order. I also decided on a $30 profit target for my live order.

It looked like the market wasn't going to cooperate with my OTM trade, but I only had $8 risked. Then at 8:55, just 5 minutes before the trade was due to expire, the market dove. My trade was now worth $31 in profit, so I took profit and closed out the trade. Mission accomplished. I hit my profit target.

The market expired below 11369. If I had decided not to exit the trade, I could have picked up $92 instead of $31. But that wasn't a certainty. As sharply as the market dropped, it could have easily retraced and settled above 11369 at the 9:00am expiration.

The first trade never filled, so there was no trade on my SELL at 11429 with a $30 profit target. Instead I managed to pick up the $30 profit risking only $8 instead of $70. It was a slightly different twist on my normal strategy, but yielded the same results.

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By Cam White, TradingPub

The Purpose of this Blog

The Inquisitive Trader will be used to share my experiences as an investor getting back into trading the markets. In June 2014 I joined the staff at TradingPub, and I am responsible for helping to book speakers for free webinars. Each week, I am exposed to a wealth of information from leading industry experts who teach how to trade the financial markets. When I come across interesting trading strategies, I will summarize my thoughts and share a link to the archived webinar. As I develop my own trading plan, I will also share some of my personal successes and failures. Responsible comments are welcome, but to avoid flaming posts and spam, I will be moderating all comments. I hope you find this blog useful, and wish you the very best on your journey trading the markets.

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the author, and should not be construed as trading advice. I am not a registered or certified financial planner. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. All individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Trading the DAX "Strudel" Strategy with Nadex Spreads

Every morning, I trade the the 7am-9am Germany 30 (DAX) strategy with Nadex binary options. I call it the "Strudel" strategy, because it's a delicious breakfast trade. This strategy was based on the observation from Tom Busby, a veteran Futures trader who observed that the 7am EST hourly candlestick of the Germany 30 (DAX) Index is a pivot point that determines the direction of that market for the following hour a great majority of the time.

The rules for the strategy are remarkably simple:

Select the 7am-9am EST Nadex time period for the Germany 30 (DAX) Index.
If the 7am EST hourly candlestick is BULLISH, then BUY a Nadex Binary Options contract(s) at the first Nadex strike price available BELOW the opening price of hourly candlestick.
If the 7am EST hourly candlestick is BEARISH, then SELL a Nadex Binary Options conrtact(s) at the first Nadex strike price available ABOVE the opening price of hourly candlestick.

I have traded this strategy exclusively with Nadex Binary Options since August 2014. But recently, I have taken a closer look at trading this strategy with Nadex Spreads.

Nadex Spreads resemble traditional Futures and Forex trades, with a few differences that I consider to be advantages:

Your risk is defined. You know exactly what your maximum loss or gain is per trade.
You cannot get stopped-out as long as your trade is active. If the market moves against you briefly, your trade is still alive, unless you decide to exit the trade.
Your maximum risk is your margin. If you want to equalize a Nadex trade with a Standard Lot Forex contract, you don't have to put up thousands to cover the margin requirements. In today's trade, 10 Nadex contracts were sold, making each pip worth $10, just like Forex. Instead of putting up over $2,000 in margin requirement, only $700 was withheld to make a maximum of $1,300.
No broker commissions, no middlemen. With Nadex, your orders are placed directly on the exchange, and there's a $.90 cent (per side) exchange fee charged per contract.

Today's "Strudel" Trade with Nadex Spreads

4 Hour Nadex Chart. Click on Chart to Enlarge

Nadex spreads put a "box" around a trade. The floor and the ceiling of the box represent the maximum price range of the box. The left wall is the start of the trade, and the right wall is the expiration time for the trade.

To trade a Nadex spread, you simply follow these steps:

Determine the direction you think the market will be going
Select a strike price of your choosing
If you SELL a spread, the number of pips between your strike price and the CEILING of the box will be your maximum risk. The number of pips between your strike price and the FLOOR is your maximum profit.
If you BUY a spread, the number of pips between your strike price and the FLOOR of the box will be your maximum risk. The number of pips between your strike price and the CEILING is your maximum profit.

I haven't done much with Nadex spreads in the past, but after today's trade, I plan to devote more time to practicing with them.

I chose a 200 point spread and wanted to trade 10 contracts to get the same leverage as a Standard Lot Forex trade, where 1 point = $10. The market was on a downtrend, so I decided to SELL during the 7am EDT Hour, consistent with the strategy I usually use when I trade the "Strudel" Strategy with Binary Options. If the 7am hourly candlestick is developing Bullish, then BUY. If it is developing Bearish, then SELL.

When I entered the trade to SELL after Bearish confirmation, the Nadex Spread I selected offered $700 maximum risk, for $1,300 maximum profit. Before placing the trade, I was prepared to take a $150 loss if the trade moved against me, and I had a $200 profit target. Here's how the trade played out:

5 minute Nadex Chart. Click on Chart to Enlarge.

The trade was placed at 7:40am EDT, and the market started grinding downward. Within 30 minutes, I had picked up about 15 pips, or $150. I was well on my way to my $200 profit goal. At 8:30, the market moved from a 20 pip gain back to a 15 pip gain. Was this a temporary retracement, or was it a reversal? At 8:40, I exited the trade for a 22 pip gain, or $220.

That's the good news. I had a plan and I stuck to it. I reached my profit goal and exited the trade.

The bad news is the market kept diving after I exited with a vengeance, all the way through the floor of the spread box. If I would have let the trade run, I could have exited at 10:50am for the maximum $1,300 reward. I left $1,100 on the table. And that will buy a lot of Strudels.

Conclusion

I have a lot of work to do with Nadex Spreads, but they have definitely gotten my attention. I know it's a very common trading adage to cut your losses short and let your winners run. Today, I stubbornly kept to a predetermined trading plan, and never gave the trade the opportunity to run. I'm not beating myself up about this, but it will be interesting to see how I adapt my trading plan to take advantage of these opportunities in the future.

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By Cam White, TradingPub

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Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Patience Pays Off with the Nadex "Strudel" Strategy on the DAX Index

Every morning, I trade the the 7am-9am Germany 30 (DAX) strategy with Nadex binary options. I call it the "Strudel" strategy, because it's a delicious breakfast trade. This strategy was based on the observation from Tom Busby, a veteran Futures trader who observed that the 7am EST hourly candlestick of the Germany 30 (DAX) Index is a pivot point that determines the direction of that market for the following hour a great majority of the time.

The rules for the strategy are remarkably simple:

Select the 7am-9am EST Nadex time period for the Germany 30 (DAX) Index.
If the 7am EST hourly candlestick is BULLISH, then BUY at the first Nadex strike price available BELOW the opening price of hourly candlestick.
If the 7am EST hourly candlestick is BEARISH, then SELL at the first Nadex strike price available ABOVE the opening price of hourly candlestick.

But a key word with this strategy is patience. One of the biggest mistakes traders make with this strategy is to jump the gun and pull the trigger too early on this strategy. Let's take a look at this 15-minute Nadex chart:

15 minute Nadex Chart on the Germany 30 (DAX) Index. Click on Chart to Enlarge.

The first 2 15-minute candles at the 7am open are bullish. The market had been riding a downtrend, but appeared to be reversing. It was riding above the 8 EMA and the MACD just crossed over from bearish to bullish. For many, it would be easy to assume that the hourly candlestick would close bullish, triggering a BUY.
But now let's take a look how the first hour of trading played out on the hourly charts:

Hourly Nadex Chart. Click to Enlarge

On the hourly charts, you can see that the market was on a steep downtrend. The bullish move on the 15-minute charts above was simply a retracement back to the 8 EMA, before the market continued it's downward path. The hourly candlestick closed BEARISH, triggering a SELL from the first Nadex strike price ABOVE the opening price.

But a little more patience was warranted. At 8:30am, several economic news reports (Retail Sales) were due to be released. The decision was made to sit on the sidelines and wait for the reports to be released befor placing my SELL order. At 8:30, the econ news was released:

Econ News courtesy of Investing.com

As you can see the news was bearish, and the market dove. I quickly placed a SELL order, risking $80.75 to make $19.25. That may not sound like much reward, but I felt highly confident that this trade would expire successfully with little stress. And it did. Here's how the trade played out:

5 Minute Nadex Charts. Click on Chart to Enlarge

On this 5 minute chart, you can see how the market was bullish in the first half hour, before diving and turning bearish. At 8:30, you can see how the economic news affected the market. The SELL order was a high risk, low reward trade, but it was never threatened. It was a quick $19.25 per contract trade, less $1.80 in exchange fees.

And that will buy a Strudel.

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By Cam White, TradingPub

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Thursday, July 9, 2015

Trusting the Probabilities on a Nadex FTSE 100 Strategy

Today's Nadex trade for the FTSE 100 Index required trusting a key indicator along with historical probabilities of success for a strategy that has been backtested for several months. The FTSE100 is an index of the top 100 companies traded on the London Exchange.

Over the past 62 trading days, the FTSE 100 has displayed a pattern between 9am-11am EDT that has repeated itself 47 out of 62 times, or slightly better than 75 percent of the time. If you followed the rules of this strategy, and got in on every trade, then your trade would have expired successfully 47 out of 62 times.

Today, it looked like an exception to the rule was coming into play. The setup looked dangerous, and the trade required patience for the right entry.

But first, here are the rules for the 9am-11am FTSE 100 "Footsie" Strategy:

Click on Nadex Chart to Enlarge

Notice the 9am hourly candlesticks above. Can you see that the following 10am candlestick never challenges the opening price of the 9am candlestick? In fact, the 10am candlestick tends to continue in the same direction that was established by the 9am candlestick. To back test this, simply pull up the hourly charts of the FTSE 100 on Investing.com and go back 60 days. Compare the 9am EDT hourly candlestick to the 10am hourly candlestick. You will see how frequently this pattern repeats itself.

The same phenomenon occurs with the 7am-9am German "Strudel" strategy that I have written about extensively. Complete rules for the "Strudel" strategy are included in the free eBook from TradingPub, entitled "Trading Made Simple: Strategies that Risk $100 or Less".

The rules for this new strategy are very simple to execute:

Select the 9am-11am EST Nadex time period for the FTSE 100 Index.
If the 9am EST hourly candlestick is BULLISH, then BUY at the first Nadex strike price available BELOW the opening price of the 9am hourly candlestick.
If the 9am EST hourly candlestick is BEARISH, then SELL at the first Nadex strike price available ABOVE the opening price of the 9am hourly candlestick.

This strategy has been very consistent over the past 3 months. Just be patient and watch the 9am hourly candlestick develop. Once it's confirmed bullish, then buy. If it's confirmed bearish, then sell. If you want to be "super-safe", don't make a trading decision until 10am, after the 9am hourly candlestick has closed.

Trading this strategy today required patience and caution, as the chart below illustrates:

Nadex Hourly Chart of the FTSE 100 Index. Click on Chart to Enlarge

The FTSE 100 Index had been riding a very steep uptrend for 7 consecutive hours going into the 9am hour. The 9am hourly candlestick was also developing bullish, but it was also gapping significantly away from the 8 EMA indicator. When the market gaps away from the 8 EMA (also known as the "T-Line") it almost always has to come back. It's like a rubber band. You can pull the market away from the 8 EMA, but it always snaps back.

With a bullish 9am hourly candle, it would normally automatically trigger a BUY at the first strike price below the 9am open. But I didn't like how far the market had gapped away from the 8EMA, and I sensed it would snap back with a vengeance. So I decided to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what the market would do.

Sure enough, the market snapped back with a vengeance. It blew through the strike price, and kept going all of the way down until it touched the 8 EMA.

So now I had a decision to make. Will the market reverse direction and head back north, and settle above the 1st strike price below the 9am open? With 40 minute left in the trade, it sure didn't look like it. But I reminded myself that this strategy has a 75% success rate, and a reversal looked like it was imminent. If I placed that trade, it was an Out-of-the-money trade, risking only $30 to make $70 per contract. Low risk, high reward. I pulled the trigger and went for it. Here's how the trade played out.

5 Minute Nadex Chart. Click on Chart to Enlarge

From 10am-10:30, the market kept going downward until it touched the 8EMA on the Hourly charts. Then it abruptly reversed and headed straight up, expiring for a full profit of $70 per contract, less $1.80 in exchange fees.

Conclusion:

In hindsight, this was a trade I probably should have passed on. It wound up working out exactly as I had predicted, but it could have easily lost. The market had to dive sharply toward the 8 EMA, and then bounce back up. I also had to have confidence in the recent historical probability of success. Those were two variables I had to trust before I pulled the trigger. But since I was only risking $30 per contract for a potential $70 reward, I wasn't too nervous.

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Saturday, July 4, 2015

My 3rd Quarter Nadex Trading Plan.

7am-9am "Strudel" Strategy

One year ago, I started my trading journey with Nadex. I was immediately drawn to this trading platform because I liked the idea that all of my trades were capped with a maximum risk and a maximum reward. There was no way a trade could run away from me. I also liked the fact that Nadex is a federally regulated exchange (CFTC) and not an offshore bucket shop.

Trading isn't easy. If it were, everyone would be raking in money hand over fist. It requires patience, alertness and hours of study to manage your trading emotions and to master strategies with a proven track record of performance.

Like most successful veteran traders I've talked to, I have made my fair share of rookie mistakes. Name a trading mistake, and I'm pretty sure I've made it.

One of the key elements of successful trading is to have a trading plan. This is your road map to trading. Without a trading plan, traders can trade randomly, jump in on untested theories, and lose money.

In this article, I'm going to share how I am going to map out my trading day for the 3rd Quarter of 2015 in my live trading account.

Daily Trading Calendar:

Before I start trading, I check the Economic Calendar for the day on Investing.com. During Earnings Season, I also take a look at the Earnings Calendar on Morningstar.com to see which companies are reporting for that day, and whether results are being released before the market open or after market close. Finally, I take a quick look at Google News, CNBC and Bloomberg to see if there's any overnight geopolitical news that might affect the markets. Now I'm ready to trade.

5:00am - 8:00am EDT: The London Breakout Strategy

London Breakout Strategy Feb 5, 2015 (Click on Chart to Enlarge)

If I wake up early enough, I check the Economic Calendar, and pull up the charts for the GBP/USD. I watch the price movement of this currency pair between 2am-5am. What I'm looking for is to see if a breakout is occurring during this time frame. If there's economic news being released out of the UK, it normally happens at 4:30 am. If the market breaks out bullish, I BUY from support, If the GBP/USD breaks bearish, I SELL from resistance. I set my expiration for 3pm daily on this trade.

During the 4th Quarter of 2014, I had a great deal of success with this trade. Not so much in the 1st Quarter of 2015. With the US Dollar Index trading at near 14 year highs, and the GBP/USD trading at 12 year lows, there was a lot of tension in this trade. Sometimes negative UK news reports would result in a huge uptrend. The real culprit was the Dollar Index falling that day. I find that this strategy works more reliably when there is a little more balance between the strength of the US Dollar vs. the British Pound.

This is not my favorite strategy, because it requires me to get up really early. But if I'm awake and I really like the setup, then I have no problem trading this strategy in my live account.

7:00-9:00am EDT - German DAX "Strudel" Strategy

"Strudel" Strategy February 20, 2015 - Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is my favorite trading strategy, and it has held up remarkably well since I first developed it in August 2014. This was based on a Futures strategy from Tom Busby that I adapted and applied to Nadex. It doesn't require special charts or lots of indicators. Simply pull up the hourly charts on the Nadex Germany 30 (DAX) Index at 7am EDT and monitor the development of the hourly candlestick. Once you are convinced that the hourly candlestick is bullish, then BUY from the first Nadex strike price BELOW the 7am hourly opening price. Once you are convinced that the hourly candlestick is bearish, then SELL from the first Nadex strike price ABOVE the 7am hourly opening price. It's really that simple. Click on the link above for a more detailed description of this strategy.

Over the past 60 trading days, which is almost 3 months of trading, the rules of this strategy held 90% of the time. If you managed to get into every trade, then 54 of your 60 trades would have expired in the money for full profit. 6 of those trades would have settled out of the money.

Important Note: There is no DAX feed on ThinkorSwim. To get this feed, you will need Nadex charts, Investing.com, Ninja Trader or other charting platforms with a DAX feed.

9:00-11:00am EDT - The FTSE 100 "Footsie" Strategy

"Footsie" Strategy June 24 2015 Click on Chart to Enlarge

Just like the "Strudel" Strategy, the 9:00-11:00am "Footsie" Strategy is remarkably consistent. Simply pull up the hourly charts on the Nadex FTSE 100 Index at 9am EDT and monitor the development of the hourly candlestick. Once you are convinced that the hourly candlestick is bullish, then BUY from the first Nadex strike price BELOW the 9am hourly opening price. Once you are convinced that the hourly candlestick is bearish, then SELL from the first Nadex strike price ABOVE the 7am hourly opening price. It's really that simple. Click on the link above for a more detailed description of this strategy.

Over the past 60 trading days, which is almost 3 months of trading, the rules of this strategy held 75% of the time. If you managed to get into every trade, then 45 of your 60 trades would have expired in the money for full profit. 15 of those trades would have settled out of the money, so loss management is more important. With a recent 75% probability of success, I still like this strategy.

Important Note: There is no FTSE 100 feed on ThinkorSwim. To get this feed, you will need Nadex charts, Investing.com, Ninja Trader or other charting platforms with a FTSE 100 feed.

11:00am-1:00pm EDT: The Lunchtime "Caret" Trade

Lunchtime "Caret" Trade - Click on Chart to Enlarge

I don't trade this strategy daily, but I do keep an eye on it to see if a setup is in play. If the S&P 500 is rising going into the 11am hour and continues to rise, I look for signs of exhaustion and reversal on declining lunchtime volume. If a reversal is confirmed, then I SELL from a Nadex strike price above the peak of the reversal. A very nice trade if the setup reveals itself. For full details on this strategy, Click here.

1:00-7:00pm EDT - GBP/USD "Afternoon Delight" Trade

"GBP/USD "Afternoon Delight" June 24, 2015 Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is a very consistent strategy that is extremely simple to execute. All you really need is a 15 minute chart of the GBP/USD and the MACD indicator. I'm looking for a MACD crossover after 1pm. If the crossover is BULLISH, then I BUY the GBP/USD at a strike price BELOW where the market was at the crossover. If the crossover is BEARISH, then I SELL the GBP/USD at a strike price ABOVE where the market was at the crossover. Pretty simple. The only thing I don't like about thisstrategy is that Nadex goes dead from 5pm-6pm EDT. Still, I rarely lose when I trade this strategy. Click Here for details on this strategy.

8:00-10:00pm - Nikkei 225 "Kanpai" Strategy

4 Consecutive Days of the Nikkei 225 "Kanpai" Strategy. Click on Chart to Enlarge

Kanpai means "Cheers" in Japanese, and this is a nice trade to end the day. Just like the "Strudel" strategy, the 8pm hourly candlestick controls the 9pm hourly candlestick the vast majority of the time. Simply pull up the hourly charts on the Japan 225 (Nikkei) Index at 8pm EDT and monitor the development of the hourly candlestick. Once you are convinced that the hourly candlestick is bullish, then BUY from the first Nadex strike price BELOW the 8pm hourly opening price. Once you are convinced that the hourly candlestick is bearish, then SELL from the first Nadex strike price ABOVE the 8pm hourly opening price. It's really that simple. Click on the link above for a more detailed description of this strategy.

Over the past 60 trading days, which is almost 3 months of trading, the rules of this strategy held 85% of the time. If you managed to get into every trade, then 52 of your 60 trades would have expired in the money for full profit. 8 of those trades would have settled out of the money.

Important Note: There is no Nikkei 225 feed on ThinkorSwim. To get this feed, you will need Nadex charts, Investing.com, Ninja Trader or other charting platforms with a Nikkei 225 feed.

A Full Day of Trading Opportunities

The strategies I follow cover a full day of trading from 5am-10pm. That does not mean I am glued to my computer for 17 hours looking for trading opportunities. Once I hit my daily profit target, I'm done for the day. Sometimes I just don't fully trust a strategy, and I move on. And yes, some days I take a break from trading.

Important Note: If you are brand new to trading these strategies, please don't take my word as gospel. Try them out for yourself in demo mode until you are convinced whether it's the right strategy for your trading style.

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Video: Breakfast, Lunch & Dinner
Trading Strategies with Nadex
By Cam White, TradingPub